2004 Election Prediction
The first presidential election I remember is when Carter lost to Reagan. I knew nothing about the issues but I knew Reagan would win. When Reagan ran for re-election, it was obvious to me that he was going to win again. When George Herbert Walker Bush ran for president 4 years later, I knew he would win because the Democrats didn’t seem to have a candidate. The next presidential election was the first presidential election I was able to participate in and I had little doubt that my candidate would win. I didn’t vote for him again but I knew he was going to be re-elected. Those things seemed obvious to me for different reasons but always obvious.
When George W. Bush ran against Al Gore, I voted for neither but I knew for months that Bush would win. The main reason? Lieberman. His wife said she hated campaigning and I don’t think you have a chance at a job like this if your wife isn’t fully behind you and supportive. He was crippled from the beginning and he knew it. That is probably why he didn’t resign from the senate: he knew he was going to lose. A winner doesn’t bother with Plan B. Lieberman was not a winner. I had hope for Gore, even though I’ve been the opposite of a fan since the PMRC days. His performance in the debates made me certain in my conviction that he would lose.
This election is the first that I have not been certain about. I strongly believe with all of my heart that Bush and Cheney need to be fired. I don’t know that it will happen, though. I made a prediction a week before the DNC: Bush would win because the Democrats were throwing the game. They didn’t seem to be trying, they seemed to want Bush to win. Now I’m not so sure.
Kerry has not done an extremely good job during this campaign but he isn’t as bad as he was a in August.
Is Kerry my top choice for POTUSA? No. Not on personality, not on issues. But I’ll take him over Bush/Cheney anyday.
Do I think he’ll win? If I have to make a prediction, I will give a half-hearted but hopeful “yes”. I think that I have to have faith in the people of my country and I have to believe that they are smart enough to fire our current administration. There is a chance that, with Kerry, the next 4 years could be worse than the last 4, but voting for Bush/Cheney will guarantee that.
Tags: Politics